Africa Is Connected. So Why Are 906 Million People Offline?

Ninety-two per cent of Africa’s population lives within reach of a mobile broadband network, yet only 36 per cent uses mobile internet.

Those figures, published by the GSMA in its State of Mobile Internet Connectivity 2026 report this month, reveal a usage gap of approximately 906 million people who have network coverage but remain offline. Another 122 million people lack mobile broadband coverage altogether.

The ratio is roughly seven to one. For every African who cannot access a mobile broadband signal, seven others live within coverage but do not use mobile internet.

The money is going to the other problem

At a side event during the United Nations General Assembly on 21 September, Nigeria’s Minister of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, Bosun Tijani, said Project Bridge had attracted more investment offers than the project required.

Project Bridge is a roughly $2 billion national fibre backbone project designed to deploy at least 90,000km of fibre-optic cable. The initiative aims to expand Nigeria’s core connectivity infrastructure through a public-private partnership.

The World Bank committed $500 million in January 2025, while the African Development Bank approved $200 million in April 2026. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has also pledged funding.

Bridge Open Access, the company incorporated in August 2026 to manage the build, is structured to give the federal government a 25 to 49 per cent stake, with private investors holding at least 51 per cent.

The delivery timeline has been compressed to three years, with rollout scheduled to begin in October. Government projections put the potential return at up to $5 billion in tax revenue and 229,000 jobs.

The project follows a wholesale model. Bridge OA will sell network capacity on equal terms to operators and service providers rather than serve consumers directly.

The difficulty is that Nigeria already has tens of thousands of kilometres of backbone fibre. Broadband penetration passed 56 per cent this year, driven largely by mobile connections.

Fibre-to-the-home reaches a fraction of the population. Operators report tens of thousands of fibre cuts annually, alongside access denials and theft. Right-of-way charges still vary by state, and efforts to harmonise them remain incomplete.

The backbone was never the only missing piece.

Kenya shows the same pattern

The problem is not unique to Nigeria.

At the ITW Africa panel in Nairobi this month, Telkom Kenya’s Kibati put national network coverage at roughly 90 per cent of the population, against mobile internet usage of closer to 28 per cent.

Rwanda presents an even sharper contrast in the GSMA’s data. Its 4G network reaches 96 per cent of the population, while 3G coverage extends to 99 per cent. Yet only 21 per cent of the population used mobile internet in 2025.

Three countries, three extensive network footprints, and one shared challenge: infrastructure that has not translated into widespread internet adoption.

Why people who are covered stay offline

The GSMA and the Partnership for Digital Access in Africa identify barriers that cannot be resolved simply by laying more fibre.

An entry-level smartphone costs about 76 per cent of average monthly income in sub-Saharan Africa. Smartphone shipments across the continent fell 7 per cent year on year, while shipments of devices priced below $100 declined 34 per cent.

Close to 600 million Africans lack reliable electricity, constraining both network economics and the ability to charge a handset.

More than 600 million mobile connections still rely on 2G and 3G networks. Beyond affordability, the report identifies limited practical digital skills, a shortage of locally relevant services and a lack of perceived value in going online as barriers to adoption.

“Africa has already built much of the network foundation for its digital future,” said John Giusti, chief regulatory officer at the GSMA. “The urgent task now is to close the usage gap by making smartphones and services affordable.”

Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, former president of Liberia and co-chair of the Partnership for Digital Access in Africa, framed the challenge as an integrated one.

“If we bring together connectivity, electrification, affordable devices and digital skills, we can ensure that the continent’s digital transformation leaves no community behind.”

The partnership’s three priorities are migrating more than 600 million legacy connections to 4G and 5G handsets, integrating energy and connectivity planning, and lowering rural service costs through shared infrastructure, results-based public funding and anchor demand from institutions.

The GSMA’s modelling indicates that halving the usage gap across 11 assessed markets, including Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda and South Africa, could bring approximately 245 million additional people online.

The measurement problem underneath

Backbone projects are relatively easy to finance because their outputs are easy to measure.

Kilometres of fibre laid provide a clear metric. Development finance institutions can verify the infrastructure, ministers can announce progress, and contractors can be paid against measurable milestones.

Activating users is harder to measure and contract.

It depends on device affordability, electricity reliability, right-of-way administration across dozens of subnational jurisdictions and whether people have access to services they consider worth paying for.

Nigeria’s own numbers illustrate the tension. A project designed to add 90,000km of backbone fibre is entering a market where the binding constraint is not simply backbone capacity.

The connection between infrastructure and adoption is the last mile, where permits, fibre cuts and costs continue to impede expansion.

What to watch

Four indicators will help establish whether infrastructure investment is translating into meaningful connectivity.

Project Bridge’s delivery targets: Whether contracts include activation and last-mile connectivity targets alongside kilometres of fibre laid.

Right-of-way harmonisation: Whether Nigeria completes the process of harmonising charges and access rules across states during the three-year build.

Kenya’s internet adoption: Whether mobile internet usage increases, given that network coverage already reaches most of the population.

Affordable smartphone shipments: Whether shipments of devices priced below $100 recover from the 34 per cent decline, a key indicator of whether more people can afford to access mobile internet.

Africa’s networks are largely built. What remains is making them accessible, affordable and useful to the people they are meant to connect.