Africa’s Digital Transformation Strategy At Midpoint

When the African Union adopted the Digital Transformation Strategy for Africa (2020–2030), it articulated one of the continent’s most ambitious development blueprints: to build “an integrated and inclusive digital society and economy” aligned with Agenda 2063 and the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The strategy’s ambition was not merely to digitise existing systems, but to reposition Africa as a producer, not just a consumer, in the global digital economy.

Five years into implementation, and with 2030 now firmly in sight, an evidence-based review reveals a mixed but instructive picture. Progress is real and measurable, yet uneven. Structural constraints persist, but momentum is undeniable. The critical question is no longer whether the DTS is relevant, but whether it is viable at scale, and what outcomes are realistically achievable by the end of the decade.

Strategy Design: Ambitious, Structured and Measurable

The DTS is built around thematic pillars covering digital infrastructure and connectivity, human capital development, policy and regulatory harmonisation, innovation and entrepreneurship, and sectoral digitalisation across health, education, finance, agriculture and governance. Importantly, it is underpinned by a Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (MEL) framework, designed to track progress using indicators for broadband access, digital skills, innovation hubs, policy coherence and cross-border integration.

A flagship ambition is the creation of a Digital Single Market (DSM) by 2030, aligned with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). If fully realised, the DSM would enable seamless digital trade, interoperable digital identities, cross-border data flows and region-wide e-commerce at scale.

On paper, the strategy is coherent and well-aligned with continental economic integration goals. In practice, implementation has proven more complex.

Several positive trends stand out over the first five years of implementation.

Connectivity expansion has been significant. By 2024, 4G coverage across Africa had reached approximately 84%, reflecting major investment in mobile broadband infrastructure. While coverage does not equate to usage, it establishes a necessary foundation.

At the policy level, the AU has made tangible progress toward regulatory coherence. Continental frameworks on data policy and digital ID interoperability are advancing, creating common reference points for Member States. Partnerships with global bodies such as GSMA have also strengthened efforts to address digital divides and support DSM objectives.

Economically, Africa’s digital economy trajectory is strongly positive. Current projections suggest the market could nearly double to around US$63 billion by 2030, driven by fintech, e-commerce, digital platforms and innovation-led MSMEs. These trends underscore the strategy’s catalytic effect on private-sector activity.

Despite these gains, fundamental challenges remain unresolved.

As of 2025, only about 38% of Africans have internet access, with stark disparities between urban and rural populations. Even where networks exist, affordability constraints, particularly data costs and device prices, continue to suppress meaningful usage. This usage gap represents one of the most structural barriers to inclusive digital transformation.

Implementation has also been highly uneven across Member States. While some countries have made strong advances in digital ID systems, e-government platforms and fintech regulation, others lag due to infrastructure deficits, financing limitations, regulatory fragmentation and weak digital skills bases.

At a continental level, coordination and sustainable financing mechanisms remain insufficiently mature. The DTS relies heavily on national execution, yet not all countries have the fiscal space, institutional capacity or political alignment to move at the same pace.

Likely Outcomes by 2030: A Realistic Assessment

Based on current trajectories and external benchmarks, the DTS is likely to deliver partial but meaningful success rather than full realisation by 2030.

The DSM vision is strategically sound and closely aligned with AfCFTA objectives. However, its success hinges on harmonised digital trade laws, mutual recognition of digital credentials and sustained political will. By 2030, partial adoption of harmonised frameworks and increased cross-border digital activity are likely—but full continental integration remains improbable.

Infrastructure rollout will continue, and connectivity may reach a numerical majority of citizens by 2030. However, universal, affordable and meaningful access, particularly in rural and last-mile contexts, will remain elusive without targeted affordability interventions.

Africa’s youthful demographic remains a strategic advantage. By 2030, the continent is likely to have a larger and more capable digital workforce, particularly in core ICT and platform-driven sectors. However, gaps in advanced skills such as AI, data science and cybersecurity will persist unless education systems and industry alignment accelerate.

Digital sectors are already contributing to GDP growth, entrepreneurship and job creation. By 2030, the digital economy could account for 6–8% of Africa’s GDP, with innovation hubs emerging particularly in North and East Africa. Growth, however, will remain uneven across regions.

Extending the DTS beyond 2030 should not be interpreted as a failure. On the contrary, it reflects the structural realities of digital transformation.

Digital systems are not finite infrastructure projects; they evolve continuously, disrupted every few years by new technologies. The 2020–2030 DTS was designed as a foundational decade—to build core infrastructure, establish regulatory baselines and launch digital public services. By 2030, Africa will still be mid-journey, not at destination.

Advanced digital economies began their transformation 20–30 years earlier, with stronger institutions and fiscal capacity. Africa entered the digital race later, at scale only in the past decade, and across 55 countries with uneven readiness. Expecting a single 10-year window to close such structural gaps is unrealistic.

Moreover, the digital divide will persist beyond 2030. Rural connectivity, affordability, gender inclusion, disability access and advanced skills development are long-horizon challenges that require sustained policy continuity.

Looking Ahead: Priorities for a Post-2030 Framework

A next-phase strategy for 2030–2040 should shift focus from foundation-building to maturity and leadership. Key themes are likely to include:

AI and data economy leadership
Universal digital inclusion and skills at scale
Next-generation infrastructure (5G, 6G, edge computing)
Cybersecurity and digital resilience
Localised innovation and African digital content ecosystems

The African Union’s Digital Transformation Strategy remains one of the continent’s most important policy frameworks. Progress to date demonstrates that the vision is viable—but only partially attainable within the original timeframe. By 2030, Africa is likely to emerge significantly more connected, digitally enabled and innovation-driven, though not uniformly so.

Extending and evolving the strategy beyond 2030 will be essential—not because the vision failed, but because digital transformation is an ongoing journey, not a fixed destination.