14 Technology Winners And Losers, Post-COVID-19

As opposed to, say, the travel or restaurant industries, the tech sector has weathered the most disruptive effects of the COVID-19 pandemic relatively well. But that doesn’t mean that business has gone smoothly as if nothing happened — or that trends haven’t accelerated or been disrupted by the crisis.

While it’s a bit early to know whether shifts in usage and IT tactics will remain permanent, some corners of the computing business have seen a boost. In contrast, others have fallen in use, suffered setbacks in the wake of lockdowns, or been called into question for the months ahead, even when workers return to the office.

Winner: Video conferencing — and its ecosystem

The big winner is easy to spot: Demand for video conferencing tools has skyrocketed meetings and classroom sessions have moved online. But it’s not just the few major platforms that are benefitting, as the virtual meeting boom has attracted satellite projects tuned for smaller niches. Zoom, for example, has an app marketplace with specialised extensions for industries such as finance, education, customer services, and more than a dozen other categories. There are similar software projects built around Microsoft Teams and Google Meet as well.

Moreover, having to see all your colleagues in little grids on your laptop has been a boon for cloud service providers as well. Video conferencing is spinning up more and more cloud machines to meet demands that rise and fall with school and office schedules. Especially useful are machines with high-powered GPUs that are ideal for generating thumbnail-size versions of the video streams on the fly.

Loser: Office management tools

Dozens of software and hardware packages designed to simplify the day in physical offices are taking a hit. As long as vast portions of the workforce are working from home, there will be much less demand for enterprise packages for scheduling conference rooms. The same goes for hardware products like the tiny tablets by the conference room doors that announce who has the room reserved. A surprisingly large number of products use physical proximity sensors to detect RFID chips in badges to control access or track usage of office tools such as copiers. Tools built around detecting and herding people using physical presence won’t be a priority at least until workforces return to the office en masse.

Winner: Collaboration software

Office tools that enable people to work collaboratively on documents or presentations are more valuable than ever. Face-to-face meetings in which someone stops by a cubicle or calls staff into a conference room to spread out some paper on a table almost entirely null and void. All of that duelling has moved online, so demand (and tolerance) for online whiteboards and collaboration tools that facilitate working at a distance has risen significantly. And now that the genie is out of the bottle, and many companies are reconsidering their remote work strategies even after a return to the office, expect the demand to stick for some time.

Loser: Face-to-face software

Not every part of the video software business is booming. Companies that specialise in creating tricked-out conference rooms that support video conferencing aren’t going to find much demand. However, the smart ones will pivot to the home market, where they can help people add swish lighting and high-quality microphones to their home offices.

There are hundreds of other projects that support people who meet in person. Conferences often ship their apps, so attendees know which talk is in which room. Large format printers deliver big, sprawling physical copies that work well pinned to the walls or spread out on a table where people gather around. The dev and design shops built around these ecosystems will be taking a hit for some time.

Winner: BYOD

When the lockdowns began, IT departments didn’t have much time to support everyone who was going to be sent home to work remotely. Companies that made the smoothest transitions were those that embraced lightweight enterprise architectures that encouraged or even required workers to bring their own hardware.

The philosophy has mainly been seen first among newer companies and smaller, more agile startups that don’t want to invest the time or personnel into maintaining a big collection of company-owned machines. They built their enterprise data services to be open to the general internet so anyone could log in from any browser. Yes, this increased some of the dangers and made some attacks easier, but it also forced the developers to confront these threats instead of relying on firewalls and physical access to stop the bad guys.

Loser: Corporate hardware

The company-owned machines aren’t going to disappear, and many companies need to continue to ship laptops to the workers’ homes. But the heavy desktops and huge monitors are going to be much less prevalent when workers need to leave the office — and they very well might be rethought even when they return.

There are some, however, who think companies will still want to maintain ownership over the machines employees use just for simplicity. Will developers of an in-house application wish to support every old browser that someone has installed on a dusty old laptop dug out from under some kid’s bed? Does the accounting department want to be running corporate spending through machines that are also used by the kids for classes or late-night game sessions?

Virtual private networks, firewalls and spending a bit more for dedicated hardware can be cheaper than supporting some virus-addled PC that hasn’t been updated since the Bush administration. And to make matters worse, fewer homes have any PC. Many people have stopped buying home PCs because their phones and tablets are more than adequate for basic tasks.

Winner: Social control

Say goodbye to the old vision of an internet where freedom of expression was the rule, and no one knew if you happened to be a dog. Tech companies are increasingly experimenting with moulding and shaping the information we see. While in the past they dabbled with this subtly, via shadow banning and gently pushing wrongthink down off the bottom of the screen, they’re now actively deleting unapproved words, apps, podcasts and more. The idea of a wonderful virtual salon filled with all of humanity gently sharing the brilliant bon mots in wonderful, virtual freedom is almost forgotten.

Loser: Privacy

The old vision of a sphere of personal privacy is quickly disappearing. Washington State wanted restaurants that reopen to keep track of customers’ names and addresses. The major phone companies are experimenting with developing tools that track who meets whom during the day in case one person gets sick.

Privacy has always been a flexible ideal in constant negotiation between a world dominated by central control and a forgetful space that gave bad actors plenty of freedom to hide their tracks. Now that the stakes are higher during a pandemic, the balance is rapidly shifting away from the individual.

Winner: Cocooning software

Some platforms like Disney Plus or Hulu are perfect for entertaining everyone who is stuck at home each evening. Others, like newspapers and books, are perfect for readers. Generally, subscription services that offer unlimited access to any of these have done well in lockdown. If you’re in a niche where reaching your customers at home with new apps or services is a business-worthy endeavour, it’s high time to explore.

Moreover, niche players in these areas will also thrive. Do you handle MPEG-4 conversion for the cloud? With Hollywood production shut down and people burning through more video than ever, subscription services are hungry for any content that might be interesting. Old movies, old shows and maybe even old commercials all need to be converted. So it’s not just Netflix and Disney who are winning here, but also the dozens of support companies in their corner of the software ecosystem.

Loser: Software for gathering and travelling

Specialised software offerings that support in-person gatherings are suffering. Companies that build software for theatrical lighting or sound systems, for instance, aren’t going to be selling many new packages until theatres work themselves out of debt. The ad kiosks meant to capture the eye of someone walking through a lobby aren’t going to be seen by many for some time. There’s an entire ecosystem of RFID chip tools built for theme parks and other entertainment environments, and they only work when the chip is physically near. All of these areas and many similar niches are going to need to wait for the world to get more comfortable with gathering in person, and for the businesses that buy them to have the necessary budget to invest.

I once bid to develop an accounting dashboard for companies that managed a portfolio of hotels. Someone underbid me. I’m not sad now.

Winner: Cloud

The way the cloud expanded to absorb the demand from video conferencing and collaboration software is a true testament to the vision that built this elastic pool of computational resources. While some cloud companies have warned that some instances may not be immediately available, and some spot prices have been a bit higher, for the most part, spot prices have stayed much lower than on-demand costs. The cloud has largely delivered when society needed it most, and enterprises are accelerating and ramping up their adoption in the wake of the crisis.

Loser: On-prem

Some reasons to keep machines on-premises still make sense. The bill for steady computing is often much lower, and something is ensuring about the idea of being able to walk down the hall to the server room. But when your employees are off-campus, there’s less of a distinction between the cloud’s data centre across the country and your company’s server room back at the office. The best you can do is “ping” both machines.

There are deeper wrinkles. Many companies stick lightweight server rooms in the windowless storage space. Landlords don’t rent buildings that are 100 per cent corner-office space. They usually mix in some worthless space even interns refuse to occupy. If you add in some of the weird incentives like budget-priced electricity that some towns offer, stashing old machines in the corner of your building can be very cheap. In the winter, they even help heat the building. Of course, all of these advantages start to disappear if companies give up their leases on big buildings and instead downsize, asking large portions of their workforces to work from home.

Winner: Agile

Did your team have a conference room with walls covered with Gantt charts for a waterfall model for development so you can hit a delivery date in 24 months? Have you blocked out said war room for weekly or even daily progress meetings? Surprise. That was yesterday’s plan. Today, we’re shifting to working at home. You may still need to build huge charts and aim for delivery dates for two or three years in the future, but you’ll need to think quickly and adjust in minutes. Elaborate models set in concrete won’t work these days.

Loser: Modeling and past data

Two of the biggest buzzwords in the tech hype machine have been “artificial intelligence” and “machine learning” — automated tools for turning data about the past into models to predict the future. Thanks to the pandemic, the lockdown, the drastic shifts in habits and activities, not to mention the ensuing economic fallout, everyone putting these technologies to work is faced with a data modelling challenge, as so much has changed. All of the big data lakes and warehouses are filled with numbers based on how the world worked before the pandemic hit, but this data can’t help us figure out what’s coming next. We can’t use the data from the third quarter of 2019 or 2018 to predict the third quarter of 2020 because so many things are different. No one knows what the future will bring, but the odds are that it won’t be much like what we’ve seen.