Kenya’s Exports To Hit Almost $10.2b By 2030

A new research by Standard Chartered, Future of Trade 2030: Trends And Markets To Watch, projects global exports will grow by 70 per cent from $17.4 trillion to $29.7 trillion over the next decade. The report reveals 13 markets that will drive much of this growth, identifies major corridors, as well as five trends shaping the future of global trade. Kenya is a key driver of this global trade growth, with its exports projected to grow at an average annual rate of more than 7 per cent to cross $10.2 billion by 2030.

The research also found that 10 per cent of global corporates currently do or plan to manufacture in Kenya within the next five to 10 years. This is evidence that Vietnam will play a key role in global trade growth over the next decade.

Future growth corridors

Pakistan will be the fastest-growing export corridor for Kenya, set to grow at an average annual rate of 10.7 per cent. Uganda and the USA will continue to be the leading export corridors for Kenya, accounting for 11 per cent and 9 per cent of total exports in 2030, respectively.

Kenya is investing to expand its manufacturing sector and is strengthening its regional trade relations. Agriculture and food will dominate exports in 2030, followed by metals and minerals with textile & apparel bringing up the rear, based on their analysis of historical data and expected trends.

Global overview: 13 markets driving future trade growth

Market	Exports in 2030 ($)	Average annual growth rate	Key corridors
Bangladesh	51 billion	7 per cent	India, UAE, USA
Hong Kong	939 billion	5.7 per cent	Japan, Mainland China, USA
India	563 billion	7.6 per cent	Hong Kong, Singapore, USA
Indonesia	347 billion	8.1 per cent	India, Mainland China, USA
Kenya	10 billion	7.7 per cent	Pakistan, Uganda, USA
Mainland China	5,022 billion	7.1 per cent	Germany, Malaysia, Vietnam
Malaysia	498 billion	8.3 per cent	India, Mainland China, Singapore
Nigeria	112 billion	9.7 per cent	India, Indonesia, Mainland China
Saudi Arabia	354 billion	7.6 per cent	India, Mainland China, South Korea
Singapore	687 billion	7.4 per cent	India, Mainland China, Malaysia
South Korea	971 billion	7.1 per cent	India, Mainland China, Vietnam
UAE	298 billion	6.1 per cent	India, Mainland China, Singapore
Vietnam	535 billion	7.0 per cent	India, Mainland China, USA

The report, commissioned by Standard Chartered and prepared by PwC, is based on an analysis of historical trade data and projections until 2030, as well as insights from a survey of more than 500 C-suite and senior leaders in global companies.

Global trade will be reshaped by these key trends:

the wider adoption of sustainable and fair-trade practices;
a push for more inclusive participation;
greater risk diversification;
more digitisation and a rebalancing towards high-growth emerging markets.

Almost 90 per cent of the corporate leaders surveyed agreed that these trends will shape the future of trade and will form part of their five to 10-year cross-border expansion strategies.

Makabelo Malumane, Head Transaction Banking, Kenya & East Africa, Standard Chartered, said, “The predicted doubling of global trade offers strong evidence that globalisation is still working, despite recent dislocation. In addition to the growth of intra-regional trade pathways, the corridors of the future will still cut across continents.”

She added that “Against this backdrop, we continue to focus on making globalisation work for more markets and businesses, ranging from micro to multinational, and drive a more sustainable and inclusive model for global trade. This includes growing our range of sustainable finance solutions to help our corporate clients implement sustainable and fair-trade practices across their supply chains.”

Globalisation will drive the next decade of growth. Despite the recent push towards onshoring, growth corridors of the future will not just be intraregional – they will be global spanning Africa-East Asia; ASEAN-South Asia; East Asia-Europe; East Asia- Middle East; East Asia-Europe; South Asia-US.

Asia, Africa, and the Middle East will see a ramp-up in investment flows, with 82 per cent of respondents saying they are considering new production locations in these regions in the next five to 10 years, supporting the trend towards rebalancing to emerging markets and greater risk diversification of supply chains.

The research found a significant trend towards the adoption of sustainable trade practices in response to climate concerns and a rising wave of conscious consumerism. However, while almost 90 per cent of corporate leaders acknowledged the need to implement these practices across their supply chains, only 34 per cent ranked it as a ‘top three’ priority for execution over the next five to 10 years.